My response to Dr Alan's post

Dr Alan D. Thompson. The Memo https://lifearchitect.substack.com/p/the-memo-26april2025

"However, the real winner for Apr/2025 is colleague Ege Erdil (pronounced ‘egg-ay’). Despite being extremely well-informed, he’s gone on record to say that AGI will take another 20-30 years, with a prediction of around 2045 for ‘remote worker replacement’. As I continue to analyze and document, we’ve already hit significant milestones for this expanded economic definition, with Harvard finding GPT-4 performed at 138% of the level of human workers at Boston Consulting Group (Sep/2023), Google admitting that 25% of its new code is written by Gemini (Oct/2024) increasing to 30% today (25/Apr/2025), GPT-4.5 being judged more human than humans in conversation (Mar/2025), AI writing human-peer-reviewed scientific papers with new discoveries (Mar/2025), and much, much, much more”.

Brilliant work, as always Alan. During my years teaching MBS students, I've been consistently perplexed by how many colleagues land on viewpoints similar to Ege Erdil's, despite the straightforward evidence trail of investment flows, resulting capabilities, and real-world implications".

To equip my students with practical judgment in this AI revolution, I developed a methodical approach: we dissect their chosen profession's core tasks, calculating precise tipping points where AI reduces operational costs below minimum wage thresholds—either as an augmentative tool or complete replacement. This exercise transforms abstract concerns into tangible business realities they can navigate.

What's particularly revealing is how little actual intelligence many professional daily tasks require. The workplace disruption formula proves disturbingly simple: when AI slashes costs by approximately 80% for just 20-30% of role responsibilities, that position becomes economically unsustainable. Professionals without distinct human-centered value propositions find themselves suddenly vulnerable.

This reality validates your assessment that AGI's transformative impact will arrive far more rapidly than academic models predict—particularly when following investment patterns rather than historical precedents as our primary indicator.

My deepest concern lies with today's students who, within a handful of years, may confront an existential challenge to their career aspirations and purpose. I anticipate significant disruption for those unprepared, and I implore those responsible for guiding young minds to consider the profound implications of their counsel in this unprecedented transition.

Keep up the essential work, Alan. Your contributions in this critical field are genuinely appreciated.